Friday, September 21, 2012

Have the Last 5 Years Been Worse than the Great Depression?

What Do Economic Indicators Say?

We’ve repeatedly pointed out that there are many indicators which show that the last 5 years have been worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, including:
Mark McHugh reports:
 Velocity of money is the  frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services.   It is a far better indicator of economic activity than GDP, consumer prices, the stock market, or sales of men’s underwear (which Greenspan was fond of ogling).  In a healthy economy, the same dollar is collected as payment and subsequently spent many times over.  In a depression, the velocity of money goes catatonic.  Velocity of money is calculated by simply dividing GDP by a given money supply.  This VoM chart using monetary base  should end any discussion of what ”this” is and whether or not anybody should be using the word “recovery” with a straight face:

 Velocity of money is the  frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services.   It is a far better indicator of economic activity than GDP, consumer prices, the stock market, or sales of men’s underwear (which Greenspan was fond of ogling).  In a healthy economy, the same dollar is collected as payment and subsequently spent many times over.  In a depression, the velocity of money goes catatonic.  Velocity of money is calculated by simply dividing GDP by a given money supply.  This VoM chart using monetary base  should end any discussion of what ”this” is and whether or not anybody should be using the word “recovery” with a straight face:

 Have the Last 5 Years Been Worse than the Great Depression?

In just four short years, our “enlightened” policy-makers have slowed money velocity to depths never seen in the Great Depression.
(As we’ve previously explained, the Fed has intentionally squashed money multipliers and money velocity as a way to battle inflation. And see this)
Indeed, the number of Americans relying on government assistance to obtain basic food may be higher now that during the Great Depression.  The only reason we don’t see the “soup lines” like we did in the 30s only because of the massive food stamp program.
And while apologists for government and bank policy point to unemployment as being better than during the 1930s, even that claim is debatable.

What Do Economists Say?

Indeed,  many economists agree that this could be worse than the Great Depression, including:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-09-21/have-last-5-years-been-worse-great-depression

Twinsdads comments:

If you choose to look at this data, you have no choice but to stop blaming Bush, grow up and admit you're mad as hell and you're not going to take it anymore, and kick out the Democratic Senators that won't pass a budget or do jack shit to help the country and fire the current person in the White House.  Every Arab and every Muslim thanks his lucky stars that Obama is in the White House and that he and he alone pushed for the Arab Spring and he and he alone is responsible for the death of our Ambassador,  for NOT growing the economy, admit "The Stimulus" was stupid, wrong and massive failure and instead of campaigning he should resign in shame of what he has done to bring down a once powerful nation and turned it into a nation of beggars.

15 comments:

  1. Maybe we need more easing, QE27. Maybe a 10 trillion stimulus plan.

    Perhaps a simpler solution would be fiscal responsibility.

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  2. "Obama The Sequel" will not be in movie houses near you anytime soon.

    This empty chair better apply to Jimmy Carter for a hammer permit.

    He's going to be in retirement a long, long time.

    1773-2009

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  3. A better indicator: During the great depression people stood in line to get bread and soup. During the current "depression" they stand in line to buy the latest iPods.

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    Replies
    1. Poor comparison Mick. Today they stand in line at the Unemployment office and the DHS for food stamps.
      Least we may also have a clue that the money for those iPods may come from their welfare check also.

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    2. Sorry Roj,
      Foods stamps, EBC cards are now applied for online as well as unemployment benefits. No longer need to talk to anyone.

      Food stamps come in credit card form for ease of use and to not stigmatize the users.

      Delete
  4. Unemployment was 25% in 1933. Ask people who lived through the depression, no comparison.

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    Replies
    1. Correct,
      Unemployment is 19% today when you count most of the people. That excluded those that took early SS benefits, Disability and a host of other lost souls.

      Delete
  5. Twinsdad.
    I really do think you are becoming paranoid and that you are using the vehicle of this site to promote ideas which are at best questionable and at worst the genuinely held views of a monocular Republican. Nothing wrong with Political views and genuinely held beliefs but the tenor of the article and your comments give the lie to objectivity.
    Concerning the Great Depression. Unemployment was about three times worse. There was no social service net worth having and FDR was forced to step in and create relief for millions.

    The Great depression was a world wide phenomenon and is generally believed to have been caused by greed, both on Wall Street and in Government. The present problems also originate in America and in particular through the Banks and their greed as they strove to pay billions in bonuses from the billions lost by the herd of investors they led to the bleeding block.
    This recession has not been a world wide affair, China, Asia in general and Australia have all survived, if not unscathed, at least in reasonable condition. We in fact have continued to grow and it is now twenty years since the country failed to achieve real annual growth.
    You blame the President for the death of your ambassador in Libya; what absolute rubbish; the blame must surely lie at the foot of the nutter who made the offensive film. Do you honestly believe the all powerful USofA through its President, should whip the Muslims of the world because one of your own behaved abdominally in producing a film capable of generating so much hatred..

    Just perhaps it is necessary for someone far removed from the hurly burly and muck raking of the campaign to make these points. I feel sure you are in the minority of Republican Supporters (of which I am one) who subscribe to your views.

    Cheers from Aussie

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    Replies
    1. Interesting perspective on the "nutter". I read somewhere that Americans value freedom of speech over almost anything. The Muslim culture values freedom from insult over everything. It is hard for us Americans to deal with someone who can't take a joke...

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    2. Stormy,
      You are better than this. What should I tell the police who were seriously beaten in Sydney Australia last week by Muslims inflamed by anger against America? There is evidence that the riots were led by hot heads and many Muslim clerics have since decried the conduct. What to tell the additional 300 Police, rostered to protect the Central Business District (Including the US Consulate) today?. I do not think it would be helpful to suggest they learn to” take a joke"

      Cheers from Aussie

      Delete
    3. Kingston,

      Truly sorry for any loss suffered in your country due to the differences in the Muslim culture and that of the US. The nuance in the statement above really involves what each culture values as a freedom. To us, everything is available for criticism. We can joke about ANYTHING and hopefully come to an understanding about the things that are pillars of each individual. It seems that Muslims cannot deal with any question of their religion. They can, however, maim and kill Christians without question. They can kill their women without prosecution. Questioning anything about their culture results in death and destruction. I am an American and I don't see a problem with bringing anything to the light of day. How much are Australians willing to leave in the dark?

      Delete
    4. Stormy
      Your “Bill of rights” has a lot to answer for!
      Some years ago a bloke called Ted Bundy was electrocuted for the killing of several people in your country. During the news broadcast here on the day he was executed we saw a fast food stand on the side of the road near the prison. The highlight dish of the day was prominently ladled “Bundy Fries”. I have never forgotten that sign and the fact that it was permitted to remain still astounds me.
      To close this subject, does your philosophy of free speech stretch to the “right” of a group of Amish men who were yesterday convicted of cutting off the beards of other Amish who had the temerity to disagree with the fundamental teaching of the sect/church ( not sure which) or do you agree with the dissidents?

      Cheers friend, from Aussie

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    5. Bundy fries...LOL...sorry, please forgive me Lord...

      I am not so blind of he ways of the world and of human nature to believe that our sensibilities are accepted worldwide. I am truly grateful for your insight on these issues. We can all learn from each other on how to heal our differences. We just need to be able to be honest with each other - Muslims included.

      Delete
    6. Oh, as to the Amish, freedom of speech extends all the way to protecting speech. It does not extend to the point of invading someone else's right of freedom of expression. Nobody should feel that they have the right to change anyone else's appearance.

      Delete
  6. Very interesting chart TD. It shows a steady decline in the velocity of money since about 1980 and then a rapid decline in 2008. There has been a couple of banking failures since 1980 and some Wall St failures, but something substantial happened in 1980 that turned our constant growth to constant decline. I remember a Levi Strauss plant in Denison, Texas that made blue jeans for many years that shut down in about 1983. The production moved overseas. I saw the same thing happen to many of the industries in many communities over the following years. Unions have been busted in our country. What used to be funded by people making an honest living from thriving industries that supplied a high demand in their own country has become funded by government programs. We still have the biggest GDP and industrial base of any country, but how much of that is really able to stand on its own without government funding?

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