Friday, November 30, 2012
Modern Monetary Theory, an unconventional take on economic strategy.. this is the Obama approach
About 11 years ago, James K. “Jamie” Galbraith recalls, hundreds of his fellow economists laughed at him. To his face. In the White House.
It was April 2000, and Galbraith had been invited by President Bill Clinton to speak on a panel about the budget surplus. Galbraith was a logical choice. A public policy professor at the University of Texas and former head economist for the Joint Economic Committee, he wrote frequently for the press and testified before Congress.
What’s more, his father, John Kenneth Galbraith, was the most famous economist of his generation: a Harvard professor, best-selling author and confidante of the Kennedy family. Jamie has embraced a role as protector and promoter of the elder’s legacy.
But if Galbraith stood out on the panel, it was because of his offbeat message. Most viewed the budget surplus as opportune: a chance to pay down the national debt, cut taxes, shore up entitlements or pursue new spending programs.
He viewed it as a danger: If the government is running a surplus, money is accruing in government coffers rather than in the hands of ordinary people and companies, where it might be spent and help the economy.
“I said economists used to understand that the running of a surplus was fiscal (economic) drag,” he said, “and with 250 economists, they giggled.”
Galbraith says the 2001 recession — which followed a few years of surpluses — proves he was right.
A decade later, as the soaring federal budget deficit has sharpened political and economic differences in Washington, Galbraith is mostly concerned about the dangers of keeping it too small. He’s a key figure in a core debate among economists about whether deficits are important and in what way. The issue has divided the nation’s best-known economists and inspired pockets of passion in academic circles. Any embrace by policymakers of one view or the other could affect everything from employment to the price of goods to the tax code.
In contrast to “deficit hawks” who want spending cuts and revenue increases now in order to temper the deficit, and “deficit doves” who want to hold off on austerity measures until the economy has recovered, Galbraith is a deficit owl. Owls certainly don’t think we need to balance the budget soon. Indeed, they don’t concede we need to balance it at all. Owls see government spending that leads to deficits as integral to economic growth, even in good times.
This claim, that money is a “creature of the state,” is central to the theory. In a “fiat money” system like the one in place in the United States, all money is ultimately created by the government, which prints it and puts it into circulation. Consequently, the thinking goes, the government can never run out of money. It can always make more.
“Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) was coined by Bill Mitchell, an Australian economist and prominent proponent, but its roots are much older. The term is a reference to John Maynard Keynes, the founder of modern macroeconomics. In “A Treatise on Money,” Keynes asserted that “all modern States” have had the ability to decide what is money and what is not for at least 4,000 years
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/modern-monetary-theory-is-an-unconventional-take-on-economic-strategy/2012/02/15/gIQAR8uPMR_story_1.html
Twinsdads comment:
This is where we are, the crossroads, the end of our "capitalist" society and the rise of the entitlement society. This theory is why Obama will not agree to ANY cuts, he is obviously practicing MMT.
If you read this article and if your eyes are open wide you will fully understand why Obama will not back down.
If MMT is good or bad, only history will be the judge, however our children will either be the benefactors or the victims. I for one can see that MMT could be the true theory, but it runs against the general populations rules, if you can't pay your bills... you can't print more money.
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TD, I'm trying to be objective here. Let's look at this statement "He viewed it as a danger: If the government is running a surplus, money is accruing in government coffers rather than in the hands of ordinary people and companies, where it might be spent and help the economy."
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, if the money is being used literally to pay down debt, how can it be accruing in government coffers? My personal belief is that nobody, not one single citizen in this country truly wants to pay down debt. Most of us know what it feels like in life to be in debt. To get rid of it, you make sacrifices and when money comes, you write checks and watch your earnings pay down debt while you eat tomato soup. It is not fulfilling to say the least. At least not until you are finished paying that debt.
But, something else I disagree with there is the postulate that if we leave more money in the pockets of everyone, then prosperity will fall from heaven like holy manna. It hasn't happened. There is complexity here that can't be ignored, but on the other hand, there is absolutely no shortage of money in corporate tils to invest. They are choosing not to and threat of higher taxes is bullshit as a reason they are not investing.
The End of our capitalist society? We never were one to begin with. Some of our most productive times have occurred when we were least capitalist. On the one hand, we wail about government handouts and how that is disincentivizing people to work. On the other hand, in the workforce, there has been a decades long decline in wages and benefits despite and explosion in profit that has come from productivity gains and outsourcing. Many people who work full time in the new shitty service based economy qualify for food stamps. Why should I, as a tax payer, subsidize the profit margin of wall mart or fast food chains.
Pure capitalism is winner take all. Once you win, there is no reason to keep risking your capital. Pure socialism is no answer either because there is no reward to incentivize hard work. That to me is the real crossroads. I don't want free shit and I don't want to pay for someone else's free shit. In our current arrangement though, I don't have a third option.
Max, how've been, hope Thanksgiving went well and you survived "black" Friday. I'm trying to be a realist here, if MMT is the policy of the current administration, they should tell us, perhaps the debate will shift then from Party vs. Party to theory vs. theory. I can see that MMT is what we are doing, throw away the link to the debt clock etc, debt doesn't matter, not one bit, AT THE GOVERNMENT LEVEL. It only matters at the population level.
ReplyDeleteAs too the capitalism, well, it did it exist, not in a pure form, but in a mislabled form. there is no describing the fact that households need to be capitalist and the government can ignore the rules of that model. Lets face it, so what if we're 16 trillion in "debt" In reality we have the assets to back up 16 tril and much more, so on the balance sheet we're golden.
For me what the issue is that Team O when awarding the "stimulus" would have been better off being more careful during the award of funds. But hey, MMT ignores the small percent of failures, doesn't it. MMT revolves around endless "stimulus" as in the long run any printed bill of any kind will wind up producing "something"
So since I fully understand MMT, let's start printing, every household should be given 2,000 bucks right away, or more, it will produce juobs because every fool in this country will spend it, which will increase GDP!
As to your question
"Why should I, as a tax payer, subsidize the profit margin of wall mart or fast food chains."
You aren't, the segment of the population that has to buy goods and services from that sector does. They are transferring their food stamps directly into jobs.....
"So since I fully understand MMT, let's start printing, every household should be given 2,000 bucks right away, or more, it will produce juobs because every fool in this country will spend it, which will increase GDP!"
ReplyDeleteThis was exactly what Bush did. I don't say that to discredit Bush, I say it to discredit the idea that some party or some well defined "ism" can fix our problems. Capitalism, IMO, is not a start and walk away system that perpetually polices itself while creating endless growth. It's not a failure of philosophy, it's a failure of human nature. One thing we don't have a shortage of throughout history are examples of where individuals have used some advantage to ruthlessly subjugate people or business.
Perhaps there is no better example then Sir Alan Greenspan himself telling congress, "I found a flaw in the model that I thought had been working flawlessly for 40 years." That flaw, to me, is human nature and the perpetual desire to take the easiest way possible to maximize profit, even when that short term gain is clearly unsustainable, see day trading and tech stocks.
As to subsidizing, we have a difference of opinion. The workers of those establishments, who make as little as possible and don't get insurance benefits, have the difference made up in government benefits. Would you be willing to pay more for retail goods if it meant that those workers got paid better and got more benefits as long as it meant a cut in government spending. The first answer of course is to say this will never happen because government is an evil beast that never shrinks. Now that we have established that, consider that we pay for it one way or the other. What the system of capitalism refuses to do in fairly distributing profit, the government gets stuck eating the cost for.
Things are well here, thanksgiving was good. Best to you and the family, it's finally the time of year that living in the desert pays off eh?
Would you be willing to pay more for retail goods if it meant that those workers got paid better and got more benefits as long as it meant a cut in government spending.
ReplyDeleteThe big problem is global competition. If a hammer made in the US is sold for 10.00 and one made in China is sold for 5.00, which hammer will be purchased? The American made with benefits and jobs or the cheap knock off. People are the problem as government has allowed the cheap which is killing jobs in the USA.
The profits of capitalism are distributed to the stock and bond holders. The problem today is inflation is killing the middle classes ability to invest and take advantage of the profits. A special thanks to the debt which is making the zero percent interest rates possible for an extended period, maybe forever. Hop you like that sub par return on money in the bank as it's the new norm.
The hammer from China is cheaper, we still have the choice whether to buy it or not. We can go to Sam's club and support the Walmart philosophy of how you treat employees, or we can go to costco. We've chosen cheap. If we blame the government for not blocking the cheap, then we are saying we don't support capitalism which stipulates that everything in life should be about competition with decisive winners and losers.
DeleteAllowing the middle class to "invest" was a deal with the devil. Whereas my grandparents may have owned a few shares here and there, their main source of wealth was their house and their savings. Both of those have been destroyed. Did greenspan do this all by himself without an ounce of suggestion from Wall Street? No, and neither did Barney Frank, Bill Clinton or anyone else. When we allowed the middle class to enter the realm of "trader" instead of worker, they predictably got fleeced. Now that everyone has 401k's instead of pensions, we are focused solely on printing money to prop up the stock market instead of protecting jobs here. We've learned to accept losing jobs, but for some reason, it's all okay as long as our paper profits seem lofty.
"When we allowed the middle class to enter the realm of "trader" instead of worker, they predictably got fleeced."
DeleteMax, one question. What is the difference between going to the market for a tomato, or going to the market for a share of stock?
Everyone is a trader. Your inflated greenback represents your efforts and each and every time you purchase a cup of coffee you are a trader.
Getting back to the main topic. Lou touched on it, inflation! When government prints money out of thin air to support deficit based programs and entitlements the person holding that greenback has a direct interest.
Unfortunately most of the people who will bear the burden of this insane policy have little of no say in the matter. The young and the unborn have no voice.
Remember no taxation without representation? Well,,,those in the womb are not being represented well, if at all.
DI
"Max, one question. What is the difference between going to the market for a tomato, or going to the market for a share of stock?"
DeleteThe difference is the tomato is a tangible asset that was produced, the share of stock is an asset whose value is derived by perception at best, manipulation at worst. A share of an IPO is in investment. Once that IPO share has been sold and becom common stock, the purchaser has become a trader who cares only about price appreciation. I see a drastic difference between the purchaser of a tomato and a trader who only cares about selling his share a price higher then he buys it.
Inflation in life is inevitable William. Too much, obviously, is a bad thing. The vast gobs of money that has been printed has largely been siphoned out by the well to do, traders if you will. Workers have not gotten shit and that's why bread is not 20$ a loaf. I know, you see that coming any day now, but if people can't afford it, it won't sell.
To the unborn- there is A LOT we could do to help reduce abortion and we don't. Those who seem the most concerned present a single idea, simply outlaw it and let people deal with the consequence of their bad sex choices. It's less about the loss the life then it is the desire to see people live in their shit.