"An Absolutely Fascinating Study – A friend of mine pointed me to an absolutely fascinating study. My friend felt it added credibility to his thesis that civilization and economics are subject to an 800 year cycle. My friend likes to cite lots of markers to prove/justify his thesis. He talks of the Dark Ages, the Age of Discovery, and the Age of Enlightenment as some of those markers. It is an entertaining hypothesis and, some day, if there is enough time, space and mental lubricant available, I may outline his hypothesis (at least as far as I can understand it).
In the meantime, I am grateful that he pointed me to a study by Professor Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern University. The study is published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research. While I don't see any connection or support for an 800 year cycle, the report is chock full of eye-opening historical data. Here's how the author begins to outline his thesis:
The paper makes these basic points:"
Twinsdad's comments:
Read the data points.. pay attention to these two points:
"What I found most compelling was the recounting of the labor involved in certain tasks before invention and progress changed or replaced them. Here's a key example:
But the biggest inconvenience was the lack of running water. Every drop of water for laundry, cooking, and indoor chamber pots had to be hauled in by the housewife, and wastewater hauled out. The average North Carolina housewife in 1885 had to walk 148 miles per year while carrying 35 tonnes of water. Coal or wood for open-hearth fires had to be carried in and ashes had to be collected and carried out. There was no more important event that liberated women than the invention of running water and indoor plumbing, which happened in urban America between 1890 and 1930."
And we all know that the automobile produces smog and may contribute to global warming. We should all yearn for those idyllic days before the internal combustion engine – or maybe not.
"While the railroad connected the cities, there were horses on every urban street. Within the cities, steam power was not practical, so everything was hauled by horses. The average horse produced 20 to 50 pounds of manure and a gallon of urine daily, applied without restraint to stables and streets. The daily amount of manure worked out to between 5 and 10 tonnes per urban square mile, all requiring disgusting human labour to remove. The low standard of living reflected not just the small amount that people could purchase but also the amount of effort at the workplace and at home where they had to expend to perform ordinary tasks."
Economic growth is a modern concept which derives from population growth. As population increases economic groth becomes necessary in order to maintain the standard of living, expressed as per capita income. If we maintained a static population then economic growth would not be necessary, nor would those regulations controlling polution and the production of more energy which some find so odious. I am always amused at those who push for more ecomomic growth and yet oppose birth control. Too funny.
ReplyDeleteI read a great book called "The Good Old Days, They Were Terrible" by Otto Bettmann which brought to mind some of the hugely unsanitary but commonplace aspects of the times we generally view with great nostalgia.
ReplyDeleteHe estimates there were 3 million horses in American cities at the beginning of the 20th century. Not only were those horses fouling the streets daily but dried horse manure was pulverized by the carriage wheels of horse drawn vehicles and flung into the air as tiny particles of pollution.
I would rate air conditioning right up there with running water. Of course this all takes energy to run. Unlike Mick, who I assume would favor instituting the Chinese model to control population, I encourage population growth and it's dynamic expansion of diversity of thought.
ReplyDeleteI suggest reading The Five Thousand Year Leap.
"The book asserts that the United States prospered because it was established upon universal natural law principles passed down from Common Law and traditional Judeo-Christian morality, as many of the Founding Fathers were guided by the Bible among others, and consequently that the U.S. Constitution incorporates enlightened ideas."
"The highest level of prosperity occurs when there is a free market economy and minimum of government regulations."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Five_Thousand_Year_Leap
I have never advocated mandatory population control, nor will I ever do so. I believe everyone has the right to decide for themselves how many children they will have, or not have. I was pointing out a fact, economic growth is necessary because of population growth, all other things being equal. I suggest you read the science fiction story "Make Room, Make Room" that the movie Soylent Green was based on. Very entertaining.
DeleteI would argue just the opposite Mick, population growth spurs economic growth.
DeleteThat is if we don't continue aborting millions of potentially brilliant minds.
Also from the wiki site, "The 5,000 Year Leap is frequently cited by political commentator Glenn Beck as being the most influential in the development of Beck's political views,[1]"
ReplyDeleteThat tells you what you need to know.
Beck is an ardent supporter of Israel Max.
DeleteAre you?
Beck is a carnival barker and Israel is irrelevant to this particular topic thread.
Delete