Tuesday, November 17, 2015

How I see it.

The Democrats:
O'Malley was never a serious contender.  Sanders isn’t go­ing to win all of the del­eg­ates from Iowa or the rest of the caucus states or from New Hamp­shire or all over New Eng­land.  Outside of being mainstream, one of the biggest obstacles for Sanders is that the su­per­ deleg­ates, who over­whelm­ingly fa­vor Clin­ton and can con­trib­ute 30 per­cent of the con­ven­tion votes that a can­did­ate needs.

Clin­ton’s only real op­pos­i­tion resides in the Justice De­part­ment and wheth­er the ca­reer law­yers in the Pub­lic In­teg­rity Sec­tion choose to pur­sue a case. The Justice Department on orders from the president will give her a pass.

Clinton will likely be the democrat candidate however no one can tell how the American public will accept her baggage and her transgressions especially oif the president gives her a get out of jail free card..

As to the Republicans:

Both Car­son’s and Trump’s sup­port­ers, are ali­en­ated from the GOP es­tab­lish­ment and are hardly con­ven­tion­al in their polit­ic­al in­stincts. They are far from in­ter­change­able.
Car­son’s sup­port­ers, deeply re­li­gious and highly ideo­lo­gic­al, aren’t likely to see the re­tired neurosur­geon’s soft-spoken tem­pera­ment in the vain and pro­fane Trump, who has taken to us­ing off-col­or lan­guage on the stump. Car­son’s peeps aren’t Trump’s. Con­versely, a voter who finds Trump’s per­son­al­ity at­tract­ive and com­pel­ling isn’t likely to feel drawn to Car­son.

Jeb Bush is a Bush and will never go anywhere.  The rest of the field a distraction at best.

None are likely to be nominated.

The like­li­hood is quite high and get­ting high­er that the race for the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­a­tion will come down to a face-off between two fresh­man sen­at­ors, both 44-year-old Cuban-Amer­ic­ans—Cruz turns 45 on Dec. 22, Ru­bio on May 28. Look for Cruz to emerge as the re­mainder man, con­sol­id­at­ing the f tea-party sup­port­ers, liber­tari­ans, and faith-based and pas­sion­ate con­ser­vat­ives that make up the un­con­ven­tion­al half of the GOP.  Rubio the other half.  Who would win the con­test is any­one’s guess. I think it  will very close.

What a hoot.  Guess the charge of racism is out this election.   Still can use the old and steadfast claim of the war on women. 

15 comments:

  1. Seems like a pretty fair assessment. If I had to pick the Republican candidate I would fear the least, it would be Rubio. When he talks, I get a sense from him that he does not hate the government and that he does not want to see it continually be shut down. Trump, Carson and Cruz do each seem to have a distinct flavor and the base of the party is seemingly no longer okay with just going along to get along. That isn't going to end well, but in contrast to the Democrats, it's hard to say at the moment there isn't at least one candidate for every leaning of Republican.

    On the Democrat side, I said this awhile back and I'll say it again, the fact that Webb and Chafee were even in the conversation at first is an indication of a rightward trend of the Democratic party. With them gone and O'Mally not a real contender, you have a Democrat in Sanders, and.........Hillary. It is all but decided she will get the nod.

    I'd kinda like to see us stay out of another ground conflict in the middle east. Neither candidate who gets the ultimate nod to lead their party will favor that view.


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    1. What would be the benefit of boots on the ground?

      I see nothing there for America. Europe has more skin in the game yet fail to step up to the plate so Russia will eventually put boots on the ground and ISIS will then see the mistake they made hitting a Russian airliner.

      Of all the candidates, left and right, I preferred Webb, at least he had his head screwed on straight.

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    2. I have a lot of respect for Webb as well, but he really is kind of an old school, moderate Republican. He's a working class guy, and though he is stiffer than a board personality wise, I think he understands a lot of what wage earner types are up against these days. It's a shame there is no room for someone like him on the Republican side of the ticket. Emotionally, he is no where near the nail spitting crowd supporting Trump or Carson or Cruz. In real life, I think he has lived much of what those people would say they believe is proper. Just more dissonance to me.

      I 100% agree with you on the lack of benefit to the US for getting into another ground conflict. But I think your comment kind of hits on something I tried to respond to King with, there are quite a few countries already involved in fighting ISIS, but from the American side of the pond, the populous feels only their commitment and they are tired of being at war. I saw one poll yesterday that allegedly says Americans think we should do more to combat ISIS, but 75% fully are against sending troops into ground combat. On the other hand, the full bore America first and always types do not want Russia to lead anything or be credited with anything other than being a failed communist empire. America had a big score to settle, and they did, with help from many allies. However, we then went off the rails into Iraq and there is no easy solution now.

      Rand Paul, so far, has been the only person that I think has articulated the fantasy thinking of his co horts. They label Obama a pussy, but Paul points out that when you create a no fly zone and a Russian plane flies into it, you have a problem. Carson says just blow the plane out of the sky, as if there is no consequence to that. In the real world, macho idiots in some bar can have a fight and bloody each other without much consequence. At the nation state level, thousands and thousands die for such idiocy. There is no palatable solution, but in order to preserve some ridiculous ass kicking persona, we will likely enter another ground conflict that does not benefit us.

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    3. I have a whole bundle of current Ads to go through for all candidates. I can admire the summarization of Louman but I do wonder if there is the passion within the people to elect Cruz or Rubio. would there not need to be an immediate and substantial swing from the two front runners.

      According to polls I have seen here, the Tea Party lot are running out of oxygen at membership level Is it possible Cruz and Rubio could combine to defeat the Thumper and the Doctor?.

      What do readers think of the main race? Can a Pub candidate of whatever quality knock over the Teflon Lady. I am sure Obama will find a way to make her squeaky clean come the big day.

      Cheers from Aussie

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    4. I think, King, that we are still primarily looking at the choices of the most rabid. Trump will likely be around because he won't run out of money and that alone will help him outlast the others. I would tend to think that a Rubio Cruz ticket would sound a like like a McCain Palin ticket, one adult, one whatever you wanna call him. We don't vote for the VP, but after Palin, I think people might look al little at that. I think Cruz would do well to tap outside of the current pool, although I think adding Kasich would be interesting.I keep thinking Carson will run out of gas, but he could probably take that W. Bush base of people who possibly care less about details but care more about character and want to vote for "A good man."

      I thought at one time John Kerry was holding his own and then the swift boat ads happened. Benghazi will have died by then, but if people have to really think about having four years of endless investigations, endless committee hearings, endless bullshit, that alone might make her a little less palatable.

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    5. Hey King.

      Both Carson and Trump will fade away. Today the anger fuels their popularity. As to Rubio/Cruz both have things to offer a segment of the party. Rubio would be the least offensive of the 2.

      As to Hilly, she carries so much baggage with the lies and deceit, I don't think the people who elect the president, the independents will have much use for her. the election was hers to lose and she certainly has done a number one job being her own worst enemy. The Dems will nominate her as they have nothing else.

      As a side not Max, if people thought anything about the VP they would have never elected Obama with Joe as his running mate. The guy equals Palin in stupid comments.



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    6. Slightly off topic but:
      Looking at the very latest New Hampshire Polls I see Sanders with 41.2 Clinton 35.3 and O’Malley 1.9 This leaves 23% undecided. Not fully understanding the rules here, I must ask if this 23% are made up of Democrat registered citizens? I assume they must be, otherwise the polls are a nonsense.
      If we accept the figures and the trend for the past few weeks as shown on the graph, is this likely to set a trend across the nation? Remembering N>H is the first state to vote in the Primary cycle and the propensity for voters to follow a trend once a pathway has been established.
      This particular thread could prove to be a valuable learning tool as well as a site for useful and constructive debate. I hope TS and Mick get involved.

      Cheers from Aussie

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    7. Actually King Iowa casts the first ballots in the primaries. But they don't vote but have caucuses. Something a bit different then an election but still they have the first voice.
      The undecided would be of likely democratic voters King. All the candidates have some work to do to convince those 23% to cast a vote for them.

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    8. Lies lies lies. Give it up Louman. After 7 investigations and millions of dollars wasted by the party of fiscal responsibility they got squat against Hillary. Just because Hillary doesn't say what you want her to doesn't mean she is lying louman. Maybe just maybe there is nothing there. I am surprised at you. George Zimmerman innocent until proven guilty, Darrell Wilson, innocent until proven guilty but Hillary Guilty until proven innocent. Hypocrisy at it's finest.

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    9. Nothing proven for sure but then again, we all know that deep pocket buy justice. If it looks like a bird and squawks like a bird and flies like a bird... I may not be for positive that it is a bird but my gut tells me its a bird and for all of the people convicted around the Clinton I also believe that birds of a feather flock together...

      Fact is though Rick, she does lie and has lied... if for no other reason than she told some people one thing and others completely the opposite.

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    10. Rick
      Caucus means different things in different situations. Here a caucus is normally a group of political members of Parliament with similar beliefs and Party loyalty.
      It does get a little more complicated when the Labor Party caucuses according to what is known as factions. A faction is either of the Left wing, the Right wing or the Centre. Do not please confuse these groupings within the Labor(Socialist ) party as anything more than differences of opinion within the general Socialist philosophy. When students grasp this concept, the understanding of the political scene here is reasonably straightforward.

      Cheers from Aussie

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    11. Rick if you had an ounce of curiosity you would know Hillary is a liar, incompetent and not worthy of being the president of the women's room.

      Have you bothered to read even 1 of her erased/now recovered emails. No rick you have not as your a sheep following blindly.

      You are right about one thing. We don't need another inexperienced president like the current idiot in the WH nor do we need a consummate liar without integrity. Yet because she's a democon you will follow her blindly into the abyss.

      http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2508-04102015.pdf
      The cost of providing security
      http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2508-04102015.pdf
      http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Benghazi-AFRICOM-Email-249.pdf
      The confused sec of state
      http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/JW-v-State-Huma-emails-00684-Pg35-36.pdf
      http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/State-Department-Ops-Alert-FOIA.pdf

      Perhaps working in a restaurant is the best place for a person with your intelligence level. A a shame they let people like you vote.

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  2. Lou,

    Biden says a lot of stuff that people laugh at or think is stupid, but I've seen him in a lot of interviews that satisfied my curiosity that he he understands the big picture. Whether Palin is truly stupid or not isn't that important to me, but she came across to me as someone who really wasn't all that curious about much of anything.

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    1. Excellent excuse for incompetence Max.

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  3. The only thing Trump, in his rather vulgar way, has managed to do, is break the back of political correctness when talking about various subjects. That is a good thing. To get to the best solution to real problems most likely some feathers are going to get ruffled and the only way for that to happen is to have frank open and honest discussions. It’s like the subject of immigration. There is no doubt that they US needs to increase its younger, more productive population. The reasons we are in a net population loss is a discussion in itself but what the discussion on immigration should be about is what is good for America. In that discussion we need to be able to call out the ideologically driven pursuits that are happening around the subject and just what some people are actually trying to achieve. For instance: why is the ‘browning of America’ such an important and off times sighted objective…. More diversity for homogeny’s sake?

    Trump has shown that he knows nothing about the constitution and has shown that he is very much a ‘Government Inc’ kind of person when he decides that it is the governments right to use imminent domain of one private owner over another for the benefit of tax revenue and ultimately the power of the state and its crony link with business.

    The only person who sticks to a law and order theme is Cruz. He does have some rather nuanced flip flops between his belief in states’ rights and federal law but for the most part he stays on message. The left of course have difficulty attacking his message because it is specifically focuses on rule of law and the many violations that make our law more obscure. They pick at him for being a traditionalist in a world where ‘more’ people are accepting this or that as a way of life… knowing full well that they have spend years creating institutions to retrain American thought.

    Carson is a nice guy. I would love to set down with him over a glass of wine and talk about all kinds of issues but the fact is, or at least my interpretation of the facts is, he isn’t particularly forceful. Dealing with the budget department of a hospital is not like holding the Joint Chiefs of Staff to heel. His manner of speech isn’t uplifting… the message is good but the delivery puts you to sleep, so his ability to inspire through speech at the bully pulpit is lacking.

    At the end of the day, people talk about someone being offensive or abrasive. I am not as thin skinned as our culturally enriched students of today and honesty, even if it hurts, is exactly what I am looking for. I want someone that clearly calls out BS when they see it… I want a president that educates the population on his position, not just imposes it like an authoritarian father to his learning challenged children. Trump doesn’t disappoint their but he is quite scary where he to actually carry out some of his rhetoric.

    For the most part none really trick my trigger… I’m still listening.

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