Max Boot
Feb. 26, 2015
Our current approach isn’t working
During an address to the nation that he delivered from the
White House in September, President Obama vowed to “degrade and ultimately
destroy” ISIS. The only thing that has been degraded and destroyed in the
intervening months, however, is the credibility of the U.S.
U.S.-led air strikes have killed more than 6,000 ISIS
fighters. But those losses have been more than made good by the stream of 1,000
foreign fighters who are estimated to join ISIS every month. ISIS’s snuff
films, like one showing a Jordanian pilot being burned alive, may trigger
widespread repugnance, but they also have a sick appeal to a dismayingly large
number of young Muslim men who thrill at the chance to establish a new
caliphate.
ISIS is not going to run out of cannon fodder anytime soon,
and the U.S. approach, limited to air strikes, has shown scant ability to
dislodge ISIS from its strongholds, especially in Syria, where ISIS has
expanded its zone of control over the past six months. For air strikes to work,
they need to be launched in coordination with an effective ground force, but
that has been mostly lacking.
The only real exceptions are the Kurdish peshmerga fighters
and the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias. But neither the Kurds nor the Shi’ites
will be able to clear and hold Sunni areas stretching from Fallujah to Mosul.
Indeed, the more that bloodthirsty Iranian-backed militias gain prominence in
the anti-ISIS cause, the more Sunnis will ra
Back in 2007–08, when al-Qaeda in Iraq, ISIS’s precursor,
was pushed out of the Sunni-dominated northwest of Iraq, it was by Sunni tribal
fighters working in conjunction with American troops. To inflict serious
setbacks on ISIS today will require resurrecting that successful coalition
rather than flatly refusing, as Obama has done, to put any “boots on the
ground.”
It is in America’s interest to send as few troops as
possible into harm’s way and to get our allies to do as much of the fighting as
possible. But sending only 3,000 troops and essentially prohibiting them from
leaving base, as Obama has done, is a recipe for ineffectiveness. If we’re
going to have any impact on the fight against ISIS, we need to take off our
self-imposed shackles.
It’s hard to know now what commitment may be necessary,
which is why it’s vital not to pass an Authorization for the Use of Military
Force that would prohibit “enduring offensive ground combat operations.” It is
folly to tell ISIS in advance that it has nothing to fear from the best ground
troops on the planet.
Credible estimates of how many troops we should
send range from 10,000 to 25,000. Just as important as the troop numbers are
the rules of engagement under which they operate. It is imperative that U.S.
advisers and joint tactical air controllers be able to operate on the front
lines with the local troops they support.
This was the formula that made possible the rapid overthrow of the Taliban in
Afghanistan in the fall of 2001.
In addition to sending advisers along with support personnel
to protect and sustain them, we should be sending joint Special Operations task
forces–composed of Navy SEALs, Army Delta Force and other Tier 1 operators–to
target ISIS as they once did so successfully with al-Qaeda in Iraq. While
aircraft can drop bombs and kill people, only commandos can capture and
interrogate high-level terrorists, gathering intelligence that has the
potential to wipe out an entire enemy network.
With a slightly larger commitment of American forces, we
might be able to galvanize more local opposition to ISIS in Syria and Iraq. But
we need to be careful not to make the U.S. the enabler of Shi’ite death squads
working at the behest of Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the
country’s far-reaching, elite Quds Force. The entire Iraqi army may be so badly
compromised by militia infiltration that it is better to focus American efforts
on persuading the Sunni tribes of Syria and Iraq to join forces against ISIS.
Baghdad–and Soleimani–might not approve, but the U.S. must ignore those
concerns. Without the support of the Sunni tribes, the West will face an
impossible task in the war against ISIS.
NO
Feb. 26, 2015
Don’t Take the Bait: The U.S. Should Not Send Troops to
Fight ISIS
The group was, after all, spawned by the occupation of
Iraq
In December 2001, when the war on terrorism was only weeks
old, victory appeared at hand with the fall of Kandahar, the southern
Afghanistan city Osama bin Laden had called home. Now that the question is how
best to confront a fresh horror, it’s worth noting that the city was taken not
by U.S. troops but by the same tag team that liberated the rest of the country:
scruffy Afghan militias advancing in pickup trucks behind U.S. air strikes. As
Christmas approached, there couldn’t have been more than 50 Americans in town, most
of them Special Forces so at home in local clothes that they were easier to
spot by the bumper stickers on their pickups: I ♥
NY. The rest of us were reporters haunting public venues like the central
market, where one morning I noticed a man standing apart. He wore a black
turban and a knowing look, both markers of the Taliban, and had a question.
“Why didn’t you come on the ground?” he said. “It would have been lovely if you
came on the ground.”
I knew what he meant, but not nearly as
viscerally as I did two years later, in Iraq, where we came on the ground. Why
we came at all is a bit of a mystery, but it was pretty clear pretty early that
our physical presence created its own reality, armored up yet vulnerable both
to labels–“occupier” at best, but also
“crusader”–and constant ambush. “If you’re trying to win
hearts and minds,” a Marine major told me in Najaf, “maybe sending 100,000
19-year-olds with machine guns isn’t the best way to go about it.”
Not massing U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 9/11 was a
masterstroke, even if it came about mainly because the Pentagon lacked a ready
war plan for the country that had sheltered bin Laden. It’s not just that
Afghanistan has a way of swallowing armies. (Ask the British; ask the
Russians.) There is an essential elegance to using what the military calls
standoff weapons in a fight made infinitely more difficult by your actual
presence. Which is why it’s fortunate that Americans have shown little appetite
for a large-scale ground war against ISIS.
The group was, after all, spawned by the occupation of Iraq.
Many of its leaders are veterans of the U.S. military prisons that turned out
to double as universities for jihad. But their aim is no longer to expel the
invader. Just the opposite. Now they want to lure us in. The fundamentalist
narrative embraced by ISIS calls for a return of U.S. forces to Iraq, modern
legionnaires fulfilling the role of “Rome” in the end-time narrative the group
believes it has set in motion. It’s a millennialist vision as complicated as the
Book of Revelation, but the U.S. role is pretty simple: show up. For anyone
seeking a logic behind the gruesome decapitations of American journalists and
aid workers, there it is–provoke a reaction.
The bloodletting does summon the associations of terrorism,
barbarity and peril that have beset Americans for more than a decade now. But
associations are almost all they are. To date, ISIS has demonstrated no
particular ambition to attack the West at home. (That remains the raison d’être
of al-Qaeda, whose Syria affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra harbors the elite al-Qaeda
bombmakers dubbed the Khorasan group.) ISIS eyes another prize. Having declared
a caliphate on the river valleys and desert land it has conquered in Syria and
Iraq, it aims to turn the clock back to the 7th century. It functions both as a
government and as a sectarian killing machine, slaughtering Shi’ites and many
others in the name of purification.
To retain its sense of inevitability, however, ISIS must
expand–something it’s been unable to do in Iraq since U.S. air strikes began in
August. Recent growth, such as it is, has all been virtual, via pledges of
fealty from existing jihadi groups in Sinai, Libya and other ungoverned dots on
the map. The mother ship itself is hemmed in. Shi’ites and Kurds man the
bulwarks to the east. To the west lie Syrian state forces that ISIS–nominally a
rebel group–has mostly left alone.
What to do? The U.S. clearly has a national interest in
preserving Iraq. (We broke it; we bought it.) But sending Americans back into
Anbar and Saladin provinces would provide ISIS with pure oxygen and fresh waves
of volunteers, while feeding the narrative that the U.S. is in a war against
Islam. We have the planes, but this looks like a fight for guys in pickups who
want to take their own country back.
.
You have to ask yourself, where is the world in this fight?
ReplyDeleteDo they care?
If the world doesn't care, should we?
The same questions apply to the Ukraine.
Where is the UN????????
"The World" is where it always is. The states that make up the world are all individually waiting for this to either affect them, or create a situation where they will have some gain if they join in addressing it. It's the same for the Ukraine. Prior to our very foolish invasion in Iraq, there was actually some balance in the region that benefitted us. Saddam's government was more or less functionally secular, and despite his ruthless love for violence, he did pretend that he was doing what he was doing in the name of anyone but Saddam. It's more than a little ironic that many of his former military commanders are now part of ISIS.
ReplyDeleteBy default, we have helped create a situation where Iran is politically if not financially stronger be removing Saddam. They have their own issues with ISIS and the cynical question I ask is whether we can contain ISIS enough to let them be a thorn in the side of Iran. These left and right debates we have in this country are kind of stupid regarding this stuff. No matter who is POTUS, I hope they are taking a more nuanced view