Sunday, May 3, 2015

A poll that may matter

Poll: Millennials prefer Dem in 2016, lack trust in justice system

The poll finds that 55% of 18- to 29- year-olds want a Democrat to win the White House in 2016, while 40% prefer a Republican. Among prospective Democratic candidates, Clinton has a large lead, receiving 47% support in a hypothetical field that includes Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who comes in second with 11%. Warren has said repeatedly she is not running for president.
The GOP race among Millennials appears as wide open as it is with all age groups. One potential candidate, Ben Carson, reaches 10%, while all others in the field are in single digits.
Our colleagues at USA TODAY College note that the poll also shows a lack of faith in the justice system on the part of young people in the wake of Ferguson and other similar incidents, with 49% having “not much” or “no” confidence in the fairness of the justice system.


Other poll results.................




Solid Majority of 18- to 29- year-olds Prefer Democrats Maintain Control of White House after 2016.  Overall, young Americans prefer that a Democrat (55%) win the White House over a Republican (40%) in the 2016 race for president, a view held within the younger (18-24 year-olds – 53%: Democrat; 41%: Republican) and older (25-29 year-olds – 57%: Democrat; 39%: Republican) segments of the age-group.  ‎This view is stronger among young African-Americans (87%: Democrat; 8%: Republican) and young Hispanics (68%: Democrat; 27%: Republican). A majority of young whites, however, prefer Republican White House control after 2016 (53%: Republican; 41%: Democrat).


Hillary Clinton Holds Large Lead over Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates. Among potential Democratic primary voters (definite, probable or 50-50; n=619) a hypothetical match-up showed Hilary Clinton (47%) with a commanding lead over potential candidates Elizabeth Warren (11%), Joe Biden (8%), Martin O’Malley (3%), Jim Webb (2%), and Bernie Sanders (1%), with 28% undecided.


No Front-Runner in Still-Emerging Republican Presidential Primary. Among potential Republican primary voters (definite, probable or 50-50; n=486), not one of 16 prospective Republican presidential candidates garnered more than ten percent of the vote.  In a hypothetical match-up, Ben Carson captured ten percent, closely followed by Rand Paul (8%), Jeb Bush (7%), Mike Huckabee (7%), Scott Walker (5%), Sarah Palin (5%), Ted Cruz (5%), Chris Christie (4%), Rick Perry (3%), Rick Santorum (3%), Marco Rubio (2%), Carli Fiorina (2%), Bobby Jindal (1%), George Pataki (1%), Mike Pence (0%) and Lindsay Graham (0%) – with 36% undecided. 


Nearly Half of Young Americans Don't Have Confidence in Fairness of U.S. Justice System, with Deep Divisions by Race.  When young Americans were asked how confident they were in the U.S. judicial system’s ability to “fairly judge people without bias for race and ethnicity," 18- to 29- year-olds ‎were split. 49% said they had “not much” (35%) or “no” (14%) confidence in the fairness of our justice system; an equal proportion (49%) said they had “some” (40%) or “a lot” (9%) of confidence.  Young whites were more confident in the justice system's fairness (55%: some/a lot of confidence; 43%: not much/no confidence) than young Hispanics (44%: some/a lot; 53%: not much/no) and African-Americans (31%: some/a lot; 66%: not much/no). By political party, Republicans are more confident in the system’s fairness (66%: some/a lot; 33%: not much/no) than Democrats (46%: some/a lot; 54%: not much/no‎).


Young Whites and African-Americans Differ Strongly on Support and Efficacy of #BlackLivesMatter Campaign; Four-in-Five Believe Use of Body Cameras Will Reduce Racial Inequalities in the Criminal Justice System.  When asked if they supported or opposed national protests of police treatment of African-Americans centered around the #BlackLivesMatter slogan, America’s 18- to 29- year-olds were evenly split (49%-49%).  Less support was seen for the protests by young whites (37%: support) than among young Hispanics (59%: support) and African-Americans (81%).  A majority (59%) of 18- to 29- year-olds said they believe the #BlackLivesMatter protests will either be “not very” or “not at all” effective toward making meaningful change to improve the criminal justice system (39%: protests are somewhat/very effective).  Young Americans also strongly favored (80%: effective; 19%: not effective) requiring “police officers to wear body cameras while on patrol” as a possible policy change to reduce racial inequalities in the criminal justice system.


Solid Majority Support Sending Ground Troops to Defeat ISIS; Other Signs of More Forceful Presence Abroad may also be Emerging.  When asked if they supported the U.S. sending ground troops to participate in a military campaign against the Islamic State (IS/ISIS/ISIL), almost six-in-ten (57%) young adults said they either somewhat or strongly backed the action (40%: somewhat or strongly oppose).  Additionally, over the past year, support has grown by ten percentage points for the U.S. to “take the lead in solving international crises and conflicts” (35%: Mar. 2015; 25%: Mar. 2014) and by seven percentage points for the statement: “it is sometimes necessary to attack potentially hostile countries, rather than waiting until we are attacked to respond” (23%: Mar. 2015; 16%: Mar. 2014).


Three-in-Four 18- to 29- Year-Olds Believe that Global Warming is a Fact; Opinions Split on Keystone, as Most Oppose Use of Fracking.  55% of 18- to 29- year-olds surveyed in the IOP’s spring poll blame global warming’s cause on emissions “from cars and industry facilities,” with another 20% blaming the cause on “natural changes” in the environment – totaling 75% of young Americans who believe global warming is a “proven fact.”  By contrast, 23% said global warming is a “theory that has not yet been proven.”  America’s 18- to 29- year-olds are split on support of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry Canadian crude oil through the U.S. to refineries on the Gulf Coast (50%: support; 48%: oppose), and most in the age-group oppose the practice of fracking (58%: oppose; 40% support).


Sexual Assault is Personal for More than One-Third of 18- to 29- Year-Old Women. 11% of 18- to 29- year-old women surveyed in the IOP’s spring poll say they have been a victim of sexual assault, 20% say they know a close friend or family member who has been a victim – with another 5% saying that they have both been a victim and a friend of a victim.


Hints of Optimism Emerge as Trust in Institutions Begins to Improve, but Low Levels of Trust Persist for Federal Government and Congress. Ending a multi-year period of decline, 18- to 29- year-olds’ level of trust in most institutions is beginning to improve.  Over the past twelve months, young Americans’ trust has increased slightly in: the President (37%: Mar. 2015; 32%: Mar. 2014); the U.S. military (53%: Mar. 2015; 47%: Mar. 2014); the Supreme Court (42%: Mar. 2015; 36%: Mar. 2014); and the United Nations (37%: Mar. 2015; 34%: Mar. 2014).  Although they both also increased slightly, lower levels of trust continue to be seen for the federal government (25%: Mar. 2015) and Congress (17%: Mar. 2015).  In the last year, trust in Wall Street increased from 12% to 14% and trust in the media increased from 11% to 12%.


Obama Approval Ratings Increase Across the Board, Especially among Hispanics. Among 18-to 29- year-olds, President Obama’s job performance has improved seven percentage points over the past six months (50%: Mar. 2015; 43%: Oct. 2014).  The president’s job approval also increased across all major subgroups, including among young Hispanics – rising sixteen ‎percentage points over the same time period (65%: Mar 2015; 49%: Oct. 2014). The president’s approval ratings on handling the economy (47%: Mar. 2015; 36%: Oct. 2014), health care (43%: Mar. 2015; 37%: Oct. 2014) and race relations (50%: Mar. 2015; 47%: Oct. 2014) all also increased since October.  Tracking with the president, job approval of Democrats in Congress improved five percentage points (40%: Mar. 2015; 35%: Oct. 2014) since the fall, while approval of Republicans in Congress remained at 23% for the third straight IOP poll.

10 comments:

  1. As to Hilly, believe what you want:
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans appear to be suspicious of Hillary Rodham Clinton's honesty, and even many Democrats are only lukewarm about her presidential candidacy, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

    Is she strong and decisive? Yes, say a majority of people. But inspiring and likable? Only a minority think so.

    Clinton's struggles to explain her email practices while in government, along with questions about the Clinton Foundation and Republican criticism of her openness, wealth and trustworthiness seem to have struck a nerve in the public's perception of the dominant Democratic figure in the 2016 campaign. In the survey, 61 percent said "honest" describes her only slightly well or not at all.

    Nearly four in 10 Democrats, and more than six in 10 independents agreed that "honest" was not the best word for her.

    Even so, she is viewed more favorably than her potential Republican rivals, none of whom are as well-known as the former secretary of state, senator and first lady.

    With Clinton facing little competition on the Democratic side, Republicans are trying to make questions about her integrity central to the early 2016 campaign. They paint her as a creature of Washington who flouts the rules to get ahead.

    Her use of a private email account run from a server kept at her New York home while serving as secretary of state has fed perceptions that she had things to hide. And questions are swirling about foreign donations to the family's charitable foundation and whether that money influenced her work at the State Department.

    James Robins, an independent voter from North Carolina, says his generally positive opinion of Clinton has shifted over the past few months, as more details have emerged about her email usage and foundation fundraising practices.

    "She and her family think they're above everything," he said. "She intentionally destroyed all the evidence on that server. And when you look at some of her other stuff recently it's equally as bad."

    Clinton said last month that she used a personal account out of convenience. She deleted about 30,000 emails that she has described as personal in nature and has declined requests from congressional Republicans to turn over her server for an independent review.

    The survey suggests that many Americans aren't buying Clinton's explanation: A majority said they believe she used a private address to shield her emails from transparency laws and they think she should turn her server over to a third party for further investigation.

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    1. At the same time, the public is split over whether her email usage is a significant issue for her presidential aspirations: Less than a third -- 32 percent -- said it was a major problem, 36 percent rated it a minor problem, and 31 percent said it's not a problem at all. Only 20 percent said they're paying very close attention to the email story.

      "We don't have the whole picture and all the information that we need to make a judgment," said Ruth Johnson, of Moorhead, Minnesota. "Will she show everything that was emailed? Or has she eliminated a lot of stuff we'll never know about?"

      Still, Clinton's overall ratings remain the strongest in the emerging presidential field and are essentially unchanged since two AP-GfK polls conducted last year. Forty-six percent of Americans express a favorable view of Clinton, slightly more than the 41 percent who express a negative opinion. No potential Republican candidate in the poll had significantly greater positive than negative ratings.

      Polls generally showed Clinton with a much higher approval rating while she was secretary of state. Opinions of her have become more polarized as she has re-entered partisan politics, as they were when she vied for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008.

      Despite Clinton's dominance in the early primary field, the survey suggests that some in her party would be open to a challenger.

      Among Democrats, only 34 percent said they were excited by her candidacy while 36 percent described themselves as merely satisfied. Another 19 percent said they were neutral, and 9 percent were disappointed or angry.

      "I wish there was somebody else," said Kenneth Berger, of New York City. "She always has a problem."

      ---

      The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

      Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them.

      © 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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  2. Better to vote for a dishonest criminal Democrat than an honest republican.

    Rick0427.

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  3. As to King Bama

    Low as 44% approval and as high as 49%. No 50's in the latest polls. At least reputable polls.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

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  4. Direction of the country set by Bama, 30.1% average.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    Want free, a powerful thing to dislike.

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  5. Surely all these polls are meaningless until the complete list of candidates is available from both parties, or God help us ,an Independent to stir the pot.

    It seems to me that if HRC runs she will have plenty of cash and the not inconsiderable influence of her husband. Even without the present poll results HRC will be a formidable force but I wonder what her election would do for your nation?

    I can see two stand out problems over the past four Presidential terms. Bush was too keen to get America involved in wars a long way from home and Obams has been seen as a spender of money the government has printed by making bigger presses. Americans I speak to are almost universally concerned at the level of the National Debit. Perhaps a mature debate as to fiscal responsibility is needed, we in Australia are certainly in need of such a debate.

    Cheers from Aussie

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    1. At this point, polls mean nothing. What's valid today is invalid tomorrow. Polls are useful to those that chose to manipulate people. People like Rick choose to quote polls in an effort to convince a winner today is a winner tomorrow. So few remember and our media is remiss in mentioning that Hilly was the poll leader before the darling of the press, Bama came on the scene.

      The left chooses to ignore the fiscal disaster that awaits us in the near future. One day the investors in the world will say no thanks to our debt and attach a premium to the purchase of treasuries which will likely break this once great country.

      A mature debate would require a mature populace which we do not have as everyone strives for mine with their hands out for more.

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    2. The left ignores the fiscal disaster that awaits, the right complains about it and then ignores it when elected. Not much difference.

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    3. Mick,

      If you review history, the Dems complained about the excessive spending by Bush 2. When given the reigns, they doubled down on spending.

      The Repubs have complained bitterly about the spending of the Dems. Now they have the ability to slow the growth yet they have done nothing but rubber stamp Bama's requests.

      Time for real hope and change.

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  6. Now that Donald Trump is talking about running, we should have a poll to decide which candidate, him or Hillary, has the worse hair.

    ReplyDelete