Thursday, February 19, 2015

The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment

Jim Clifton

Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.
Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.
None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.
There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
Yet another figure of importance that doesn't get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find -- in other words, you are severely underemployed -- the government doesn't count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
There's no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
And it's a lie that has consequences, because the great American dream is to have a good job, and in recent years, America has failed to deliver that dream more than it has at any time in recent memory. A good job is an individual's primary identity, their very self-worth, their dignity -- it establishes the relationship they have with their friends, community and country. When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen's talents, training and experience, we are failing the great American dream.
Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's middle class.
I hear all the time that "unemployment is greatly reduced, but the people aren't feeling it." When the media, talking heads, the White House and Wall Street start reporting the truth -- the percent of Americans in good jobs; jobs that are full time and real -- then we will quit wondering why Americans aren't "feeling" something that doesn't remotely reflect the reality in their lives. And we will also quit wondering what hollowed out the middle class

8 comments:

  1. Not disagreeing with the author, but I honestly ask, "What's the point?" This isn't something new and no matter who is POTUS, they would be touting the numbers as good stuff. The author makes a decent point, but again, no solutions.

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    1. It speaks to the dis-ingenuousness of government. Party really doesn't matter does it. Anything to fool the public. Think O would have been re-elected touting a 15% UE rate?

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    2. "Think O would have been re-elected touting a 15% UE rate?"

      Respectfully Lou, this question doesn't mean anything. Did the people in the 15% unemployed feel better about the plight because of a falsely stated number? They looked Obama and looked the other way and decided to stay with the devil they knew just as they did with Bush.

      Again though, this is pointing out the emperor has no clothes, I'd like to hear what a solution would look like.

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    3. Think the 6 million that lost their health insurance and were forced into the exchange would have voted for O if he would have told the rest of the story he knew since 2010 that millions would lose their healthcare.

      And no, it means nothing as he was re-elected with or without the truth.

      A solution for the UE number would be to use the U6 number. While not entirely accurate, a better representation of reality today. But then again, that would call for honesty in government. Not going to happen no matter what party is in charge.

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    4. I hear you. Just like when they stopped reporting M3 when it became clear how ludicrous the leverage in our system had become. Gazillions of dollars printed, but next to nothing actually went into circulation.

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    5. The Fed circus is entertaining.

      The fed creates money. Purchases treasuries with the money. The treasury pays interest on the treasuries to the Fed. The Fed returns the interest to the treasury.

      In reality, the fed could disappear the 4 trillion in debt they hold and the impact, zero except the US would only be 14 trillion in debt. The US Gov could disappear the 2 trillion in debt to the SS fund. SS is a [pay as you go system anyway. The impact, zero and 12 trillion in debt. Manageable again. The only problem is our politician would have learned nothing and we would be 18 trillion in debt in a few years again.

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    6. What will eventually happen is that someday, maybe 20 years from now, people who work for a living on hourly wages will start to get raises because they will be needed. When that happens, that's when inflation will occur and we will inflate our way out of it, this is how you screw someone who lends you a lot money.

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