King vs. Burwell. How will SCOTUS rule.

The main question in the King case is whether Congress intended for states using the federal exchange to have access to tax credits, or if the credits were meant to be a reward for creating a state-based exchange. Over the last few years, and especially in recent months, we’ve seen evidence from both sides attempting to prove what lawmakers intended.

Here are the facts: The Affordable Care Act amended the IRS tax code to provide subsidies for plans “which were enrolled in through an Exchange established by the State under 1311.” Section 1311 lays out guidelines for states to create their own exchanges, and doesn’t mention a federal exchange. The Obama administration argues that this is a drafting issue and that it was never Congress’s intent to deprive states of subsidies. A later section gives the Health and Human Services secretary the power to “establish and operate such Exchange within the State.” The conservative groups and people suing the administration, led by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, argue that Congress wanted to use the subsidies to reward states that built their own exchanges.

Each piece of evidence speaks to lawmakers’ intent, which is why the Gruber video was so powerful—here was the guy who helped create Obamacare saying the subsidies were a reward, or a threat to build an exchange, or else lose out on millions of federal dollars. But while Gruber got the most attention, there are also plenty of other things—e-mails between reporters and staffers, past statements from lawmakers, and votes in Congress—that give credence to the idea the bill was just sloppily written.