Joe Klein , April
3, 2014
The
Affordable Care Act has problems. But the GOP campaign to junk it is now
finished
The endless,
blindingly obtuse debate about the Affordable Care Act–also known as
Obamacare–has been almost entirely about politics, not substance. There are two
reasons for this. We haven’t had much real substance to go on. And politics is
a lot easier for us wizards of the media to report and opine upon. The abysmal
debut of the HealthCare.gov website is a lot easier to comprehend–government
can’t tie its own shoelaces–than the heroic efforts to bring the site back to
life. The people who “lost” their insurance because of new coverage
requirements are more famous than those who were able to get better, cheaper
coverage through the new government health care markets. (Actually, they’re
many of the same people.) The fact that 7.1 million people signed up for
insurance is more important than who they actually are: Were they uninsured in
the past? Will they pay their bills? Will they get the care they’re paying for?
Will the system be able to handle all the new traffic?
But we have
now turned a corner. the system is up and running. It has 7.1 million customers
(plus 4.5 million more in the expanded Medicaid program). The word of mouth
seems to be … not bad: a recent ABC News–Washington Post poll actually had more
Americans in favor of Obamacare than opposed to it, by an overpowering 49% to
48%. Those numbers may well improve over time as the public learns that the
program isn’t the socialist cataclysm that Republicans predicted. It may even
happen by November. It is not impossible that Americans will be pleased that a
significant social injustice has been rectified: the hardworking poor finally
have health care protection, just as the indigent on Medicaid have had. Indeed,
there is one political thing that we know for sure: the Republicans have lost
this debate substantively. The law won’t be repealed. “There is no off switch,”
says Professor John DiIulio of the University of Pennsylvania, who is studying
the system from the bottom up in 35 states. “There are financial obligations to
the people who have signed up [and receive subsidies from the government].
There are 50 different stories here. The program is different in every state.
That makes it difficult to formulate a national policy response,” whether it be
repeal or sweeping reform.
Which doesn’t
mean the Affordable Care Act doesn’t need reform. It is a slovenly piece of
legislation that will need constant modification and in some cases structural
overhaul. The very notion that there are 50 stories here demonstrates a glaring
inefficiency. There should be four or five regional exchanges–they should be
supermarkets, not corner stores, providing greater economies of scale. There
ought to be (as six moderate Democratic Senators proposed) a wider variety of
insurance options, including plans with lower premiums and higher deductibles.
There should be fewer mandated coverages: if the Jones family believes it
receives all the mental-health counseling it needs through its church, it
shouldn’t be required to pay for mental-health coverage. Businesses that
currently provide health coverage for their employees in the private market,
especially moderate-size companies, should be free to shop for better deals in
the health care exchanges. The President has been open to negotiation on most
of the above, as well as conservative evergreens like medical-malpractice
reform.
A recent
Kaiser family foundation poll shows that 59% of Americans want to see this
program improved, not repealed–another reason the Republicans have lost this
debate. There are legitimate arguments against government expansion, but the
Republicans haven’t been making them. Instead they’ve resorted to fear tactics
(remember “death panels”), demagoguery (socialism!), concocted bad-news stories
and irrelevant bean-counting. One reason the 7.1 million people signing up
became such a big deal is that Republicans made it a litmus test. Given public
disgust with the noxious atmosphere in Washington, you might expect that the
GOP would be ripe for a reset on this issue. They could argue, We’re gonna
reform this thing, make it an efficient free-enterprise model for the world.
After all, the bone structure of Obamacare–the exchanges, the individual
mandate–came out of the conservative Heritage Foundation 25 years ago.
But no. John
Boehner and other GOP leaders sent a reflexive message to the 7.1 million
enrollees: they’re still against it, no retreat, no surrender. That makes
political sense in a dull, conventional-wisdom way. Current polls have them
winning the House and perhaps the Senate in November. But what happens if
Obamacare brings better coverage to millions of Americans between now and then?
What happens if the good-news stories start outplaying the bad? Politics is
never static, especially seven months from Election Day.


